Uncategorized November 15, 2022

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

This video shows Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023. Each month, he analyzes the most up-to-date U.S. housing data to keep you well-informed about what’s going on in the real estate market.


Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023

1. There Is No Housing Bubble

Mortgage rates rose steeply in 2022 which, when coupled with the massive run-up in home prices, has some suggesting that we are recreating the housing bubble of 2007. But that could not be further from the truth.

Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates. While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.

2. Mortgage Rates Will Drop

Mortgage rates started to skyrocket at the start of 2022 as the Federal Reserve announced their intent to address inflation. While the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, they can influence them, which we saw with the 30-year rate rising from 3.2% in early 2022 to over 7% by October.

Their efforts so far have yet to significantly reduce inflation, but they have increased the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Therefore, early in the year I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing. Rates will remain above 6% until the fall of 2023 when they should dip into the high 5% range. While this is higher than we have become used to, it’s still more than 2% lower than the historic average.

3. Don’t Expect Inventory to Grow Significantly

Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average. In 2023 I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, continue reading

Market NewsReal Estate Trends July 11, 2022

Windermere Living Summer Edition

Windermere Living Summer/Fall Edition Now Available!

We are so excited to announce the Summer/Fall issue of Windermere Living is now available online. Please enjoy the beautiful listings throughout our network along with our featured articles including how to take your Taco Tuesday up a notch and more! Check out the full issue and the beautiful featured Idaho homes. If you are interested in receiving printed copies for your home or office, please contact us at powerhousegroup@windermere.com or 208-920-5966.

What is Windermere Living?

Produced, Windermere Living magazine, produced exclusively by Windermere Real Estate, features beautiful homes for sale in neighborhoods throughout the Western U.S. It also offers carefully curated editorial that reflects our passion for community, connection, and inspired living. You need not be in the market for a home to enjoy Windermere Living; you just need an appreciation for real estate and elevated living.

Full Issue Here

 

 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends May 3, 2022

Q1 2022 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Employment in Idaho rose 3.2% over the past 12 months and the latest data shows the number of jobs is 38,300 higher than the pre-pandemic peak. This is particularly notable as there are only nine other states that have exceeded their pre-Covid employment levels. The state unemployment rate was only 2.7%, down from 3.1% at the end of 2021, and lower than the March 2021 rate of 3.9%. There was a very modest decline in total employment between February and March of this year, but I do not see this as being an issue. The labor force continues to grow, and my current forecast calls for employment to rise 3% in 2022.

Idaho Home Sales

❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 5,183 homes sold, representing an increase of 4.2% compared to a year ago but 24.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Quarter over quarter, sales fell in every county covered by this report.

❱ Sales fell in all the northern counties contained in this report compared to a year ago, but this was offset by rising sales in more than half of the counties in Southern Idaho.

❱ Pending sales were 2.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021, but this is more than likely a function of inventory levels, which were down 28.4% from the last quarter. Supply is still very tight.

Continue Reading

Market NewsReal Estate Trends April 26, 2022

On the Fence of Whether or Not To Move This Spring? Consider This.

 

If you’re thinking of selling your house, it may be because you’ve heard prices are rising, listings are going fast, and sellers are getting multiple offers on their homes. But why are conditions so good for sellers today? And what can you expect when you move? To help answer both of those questions, let’s turn to the data.

Today, there are far more buyers looking for homes than sellers listing their houses. Here are the maps of the latest buyer and seller traffic from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to help paint the picture of what this looks like:

Notice how much darker the blues are on the left. This shows buyer traffic is strong today. In contrast, the much lighter blues on the right indicate weak or very weak seller traffic. In a nutshell, the demand for homes is significantly greater than what’s available to purchase.

What That Means for You

You have an incredible advantage when you sell your house under these conditions. Since buyer demand is so high at a time when seller traffic is so low, there’s a good chance buyers will be competing for your house.

According to NAR, in February, the average home sold got 4.8 offers. When buyers have to compete with one another like this, they’ll do everything they can to make their offer stand out. This could play to your favor and mean you’ll see things like waived contingencies, offers over asking price, earnest money deposits, and more. Selling when demand is high and supply is low sets you up for a big win.

If you’re also looking to buy a house, you may be tempted to focus more on just the seller traffic map and wonder if it means you’ll have trouble finding your next home. But remember this: perspective is key. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, says:

“The limited number of homes for sale is a lesson in perspective. This same stat that frustrates would-be homebuyers also means that today’s home sellers enjoy more limited competition than last year’s home sellers.”

If you look at the big picture, the opportunity you have as a seller today is unprecedented. Last year was a hot sellers’ market. This year, inventory is even lower, and that means an even bigger opportunity for you. Even though finding your next home in a market with low inventory can be challenging, is that concern worth passing on some of the best conditions sellers have ever seen?

As added peace of mind, remember real estate professionals have been juggling this imbalance of supply and demand for nearly two years, and they know how to help both buyers and sellers find success when they move. A skilled agent can help you capitalize on the great opportunity you have as a seller today and guide you through the buying process until you find the perfect place to call your next home.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to move, you have an incredible opportunity in front of you today. Trust the experts. Let’s connect so you have expertise on your side that can help you win when you sell and when you buy.

 

Courtesy of Keeping Current Matters

EventsMarket News January 25, 2022

2022 Economic & Housing Forecast

Market NewsReal Estate Trends November 3, 2021

Q3 2021 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

On top of having recovered all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by the end of 2020—a remarkable feat in itself—the Idaho economy continues to strengthen. Current employment levels are up by 15,400 jobs from the pre-pandemic peak. With the labor market continuing to expand, the unemployment rate was 2.9% in August (the most recent data available). Equally impressive was that the rate dropped even as the labor force grew—no easy task. New COVID-19 cases remain higher than I would like, but this does not appear to have impacted the state’s economy to any significant degree given the robust employment picture. As we move, hopefully, toward a time when the impacts of the pandemic wane further, I see nothing but an upward trajectory for the state’s economy.

IDAHO HOME SALES

❱ In the third quarter, 7,354 existing homes sold, representing a drop of 19.9% from a year ago. However, given that the country was experiencing a massive housing rebound following the outbreak of COVID-19, any comparison with data from 12 months ago is not very informative. More useful is that sales rose 22.1% compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ As mentioned, comparing current data to a year ago does not provide an accurate picture, but comparing it with the second quarter data shows sales higher across the board. Sales were up by double digits in every county covered by this report.

❱ Year-over-year sales improved in Shoshone County in Northern Idaho. Sales also rose in Gem County in the southern part of the state.

❱ Pending sales rose 16.5% from the second quarter of 2021, suggesting that closed sales in the final quarter of the year are also likely to show improvement from current levels. This is also supported by the fact that listing inventory has risen almost 36%. I predict more listings will lead to more sales.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales in various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

IDAHO HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ The average home price in the region rose 30.9% year over year to $603,066. Prices were also up 8% compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the previous quarter, home prices were up 8.9% in both the northern and southern counties in this report. Sizable gains were seen in Shoshone County (+33.7%) and Bonner County (+22.7%) in the north, and Valley County (+22.6%) and Blaine County (+17.2%) in the south.

❱ Prices rose by double-digits across the board. Sale prices were up 37% in the North Idaho counties covered by this report, and up 27.7% in the southern counties.

❱ With far more buyers than sellers, home prices continue their upward march. As prices are rising at a far faster pace than wages, this cannot continue indefinitely. I expect to see the pace of appreciation start to slow, but probably not until next year.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 72 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho, and 31 days in the southern part of the state.

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped 23 days compared to the third quarter of 2020 but rose 2 days compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ In Northern Idaho, days on market dropped in all counties versus a year ago but rose in all counties compared to the second quarter of this year. Market time in Southern Idaho was also lower than a year ago, but it was up from the prior quarter in Valley, Gem, and Blaine counties.

❱ Homes sold the fastest in Ada and Canyon counties in the southern part of the state. Sales were again fastest in Shoshone County in the northern part of the state.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Idaho’s economy appears to be powering forward and job recovery is well ahead of almost every other state. The result is clearly an increasing number of buyers who feel comfortable buying a new home, even given the dramatic price growth of late.

That said, the only factors favoring buyers right now are that there are significantly more homes to choose from and mortgage rates remain very low by historic standards. All other factors support sellers more than buyers. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in their favor, even as affordability concerns continue to rise.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Market NewsReal Estate Trends February 2, 2021

Q4 2020 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

 

by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Along with the rest of the country, the Idaho economy and its employment levels were significantly impacted by COVID-19. Though 83,100 jobs were lost, the recovery continues, with all but 3,400 of the jobs lost having returned. With this recovery in employment, the unemployment rate, which peaked at 11.8% in April, now stands at a respectable 4.8%. Although the direction is very positive, I am continuing to temper my enthusiasm because Idaho saw new COVID-19 cases rise in December. If this continues, the pace of the job recovery may slow.

IDAHO HOME SALES

❱ During the final quarter of 2020, 7,282 homes were sold. This represents a very significant year-over-year increase of 19.4%.

❱ In the southern markets, sales also rose in all counties. Blaine County saw a remarkable increase: the number of transactions there was up 88%. Double-digit growth was seen in all counties other than Payette.

❱ Year-over-year sales growth was positive in all the Northern Idaho counties contained in this report. Boundary County saw significant growth. Overall, the region saw double-digit growth.

❱ Pending sales slowed compared to the third quarter, but I attribute this to seasonality. Listing activity was 50% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, which certainly frustrated would-be buyers.

IDAHO HOME PRICES

❱The average home price in the region rose a very significant 29% year-over-year to $496,679.

❱ In Northern Idaho, prices rose significantly in Kootenai County, but all counties saw double-digit gains. Southern Idaho price growth was equally impressive, with Blaine County standing out with an average home sale price over $1.2 million.

❱ Prices rose in all Northern and Southern Idaho counties covered by this report.

❱ As mentioned above, inventory levels remain an issue. As much as I would like to say they will increase early in the spring, I am afraid that may not be the case.

 

Continue Reading

 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends January 11, 2021

Incorporate Pantone’s Color of 2021 Into Your Home

by Sandy Dodge

For the second time ever, Pantone’s Color of the Year is actually two colors: Ultimate Gray and Illuminating Yellow. Ultimate Gray is emblematic of natural elements that stand the test of time, while Illuminating Yellow is a cheerful sunshine yellow, symbolizing energy and clarity.

Here are some ways you can harness this color harmony in your home.

 

Brighten Your Bedroom

With a foundation of Ultimate Gray, Illuminating yellow will brighten your bedroom, livening up the space and radiating positivity. Mix and match different furniture and accent wall combinations to get the right balance of sunny yellow and solid gray.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Refresh Your Home Office

Home offices have become more important than ever. As working from home continues in 2021, your remote workspace is the perfect location to add in Pantone’s Color of the Year. We all could use some added stimulation to keep our workdays going smoothly and productively. Use Illuminating to add some colorful accents or to paint your wall, balance it out with some Ultimate Gray, and let the positivity fill your home office. A modern home office with a yellow wall.

 

 

 

 

Accents In Your Living Room

Pantone’s Illuminating is a perfect accent color for your home. Incorporate this energetic sunshine yellow in your living room in the form of decorative throw pillows, blankets, and accent décor pieces like vases and curtains. Ultimate Gray is a perfect color for large furniture items and will help to balance out the tone of your living room. It provides a neutral backdrop, which gives you the freedom to decorate brightly.

 

 

Make A Statement With Your Front Door

Your front entrance plays a significant role in the first impressions of your home. What better way to use Pantone’s striking yellow than a front door makeover? Illuminating yellow presents an opportunity to bring a little sunshine to your family and guests every time they approach. Ultimate Gray as both a wall color and an accent color will help to solidify your new, strikingly optimistic front door. Accent pieces like house numbers, your mailbox, and plant pots will help create harmony between the two colors. A yellow front door against a gray wall.

Read more about this year’s color trends and how you can incorporate them into your home here: 2021 Paint Color Trends

EventsMarket NewsReal Estate Trends December 21, 2020

Giving locally in 2020

2020 is a year like no other we have seen in our lifetime. It presented a unique set of challenges for many and it is not lost on any of us at Windermere Powerhouse Group that our industry is thriving locally. We realized we were given a gift this year. We were reminded of what is truly important… family, friends, health and home. It was an opportunity to appreciate little things we took for granted. Our community is special and we wanted to do all we could to make sure that we were helping others who were in less fortunate circumstances.  

Windermere Powerhouse Group staff, agents and their clients got creative in figuring out ways to help. We hosted a Drive Thru Donation day for the Boise Rescue Mission, donated money to The Idaho Foodbank and helped seven families through Faces of Hope have a special Christmas. We all have time, talent or money to donate and strive to live that motto. 

 

We look forward to continuing and doing even more in 2021. We are grateful we have the resources to help others and appreciate the community that serves us. If you are interested in helping any of these local organizations, they are all linked above. 

Happy Holidays and Cheers to 2021.

 

Did you know?

For the past 30 years a portion of every Windermere agent’s commission has been donated to the Windermere Foundation. Having 100% participation gives us a common purpose and sends a powerful message about our commitment to the community. Housing is our business, so helping homeless families is a natural fit. We later expanded that to include low-income families, with an emphasis on helping children.

Market NewsReal Estate Trends July 30, 2020

Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Powerhouse Group agent at 208-920-5966.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It appears as if the significant COVID-19-induced contraction in employment Idaho experienced earlier this year is behind us (at least for now). Statewide employment declined modestly in March, but April was the real shock, with the loss of more than 78,000 jobs in the month, a decline of 10.2%. However, the economy appears to have turned around remarkably quickly, with a solid increase of 24,300 jobs in May. Idaho did see COVID-19 cases rise significantly in June, but the latest data appears to suggest that the trend has started to reverse. If this continues, I am hopeful more of the jobs lost will return.

 

HOME SALES

  • During the second quarter of 2020, 6,264 homes were sold, a drop of 10.6% when compared to the second quarter of 2019. However, I would note that sales rose 22.2% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • In the southern markets, sales rose in small Valley County, but dropped in the rest of the counties covered in this report compared to the same period a year ago.
  • Year-over-year, sales growth was negative in all of the Northern Idaho counties contained in this report. The most substantial drop was in Bonner County, though the decline there amounted to only 37 units.
  • Pending sales rose a significant 18% over the first quarter of the year, suggesting that closed sales will rise in the third quarter.

Continue reading