EventsMarket NewsReal Estate Trends January 4, 2023

2023 Economic and Housing Forecast with Matthew Gardner

Please join us for the 2023 Economic and Housing Forecast with Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner analyzes and interprets economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience. He will provide insight on the current economy, housing, and the economic forecast in the Treasure Valley.  

This is a great way to stay informed about the 2023 economy. Matthew Gardner is experienced, knowledgeable and engaging. You don’t want to miss it. If you have any questions, please contact Gretchen Bolton at our office at 208-920-5966 or gbolton@windermere.com. Please extend this invitation to anyone who is interested in learning more about the 2023 economic forecast for Idaho and beyond. 

Tuesday, January 17, 2023 
Breakfast Served:  9:00 am | Speaker and Q&A: 10:00 am-12:00 pm
JUMP – Jack’s Urban Meeting Place – Pioneer Room

REGISTER HERE

If you have any questions, please contact Gretchen Bolton at our office at 208-920-5966 or gbolton@windermere.com. Please extend this invitation to anyone who is interested in learning more about the 2023 economic and housing forecast for Idaho and beyond. 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends November 1, 2022

Q3 2022 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Employment in Idaho continues to grow, but the pace has started to taper. The addition of 22,400 jobs over the past 12 months represents a growth rate of 2.8%. Idaho’s third-quarter unemployment rate was 2.7%, down from 3.5% a year ago. This is higher than the all-time low in May and June of this year, but very impressive all the same. Although jobs are being added at a slower pace, I am not concerned given the current unemployment rate and the growing labor force.

Idaho Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter of 2022, 5,243 homes sold, which was 28.7% lower than a year ago and 18.1% lower than in the second quarter of the year.

❱ Listing activity was up 53% compared to a year ago. The average number of homes on the market was 9.1% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

❱ Compared to the same period a year ago, sales fell in the northern part of the state and were lower in all areas of Southern Idaho except Valley County. Compared to the second quarter, sales also fell across Northern Idaho, but rose in Valley, Payette, and Boise counties in the southern part of the state.

❱ Pending sales were 19% lower than in the second quarter of this year. With more listings and fewer sales, the market is certainly slowing, much of which can be attributed to rising mortgage rates, which hit a level we have not seen since 2008.


Idaho Home Prices

❱ The average home price in the region rose 4.3% year over year to $625,275 but was down 2.9% compared to the second quarter of the year.

❱ Compared to the second quarter of 2022, prices rose in all Northern Idaho counties except Kootenai, where they were down 1.7%. In the southern part of the state, prices fell across the board.

❱ Prices rose by double digits in Bonner and Boundary counties, while the balance of Northern Idaho counties saw single-digit growth. In the southern part of the state, prices rose in four of the counties, but fell in Boise, Valley, and Blaine counties.

❱ Median listing prices in the second quarter were lower in all southern markets, but higher in all but Bonner County in the northern part of the state.

 

Mortgage Rates

 

This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market go through a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.

As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher, but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to slowly pull back. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.

 

Idaho Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region rose five days compared to the same quarter of 2021 but fell six days compared to the second quarter of 2022.

❱ In Northern Idaho, days on market rose in all counties other than Kootenai compared to a year ago. Market time rose in every county other than Blaine in Southern Idaho.

❱ It took an average of 74 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho, and 37 days in the southern part of the state.

❱ Homes sold the fastest in Ada County in the southern part of the state and in Shoshone County in Northern Idaho.

Conclusions

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The third quarter appears to have been an inflection point: the impact of higher mortgage rates and lower affordability have now started to negatively affect home sales and prices. With mortgage rates likely to remain very high compared to recent years, the massive run-up in home values is at an end. Although the market will continue to be negatively impacted as we move through the winter and into the spring, I don’t see it falling in a manner similar to the Great Recession. Owners are sitting on significant equity. Even if prices fall in 2023, which I expect, the decline will be relatively modest.

With a contracting market, I expect that many homeowners who were thinking about selling will decide to stay put and ride out the slowdown. This will mean the number of homes for sale is unlikely to grow significantly from current levels. Given all the data discussed here, I am moving the needle more toward balance, but we are still not in a typical buyer’s market at the present time.

 

About Matthew Gardner

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends May 3, 2022

Q1 2022 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Employment in Idaho rose 3.2% over the past 12 months and the latest data shows the number of jobs is 38,300 higher than the pre-pandemic peak. This is particularly notable as there are only nine other states that have exceeded their pre-Covid employment levels. The state unemployment rate was only 2.7%, down from 3.1% at the end of 2021, and lower than the March 2021 rate of 3.9%. There was a very modest decline in total employment between February and March of this year, but I do not see this as being an issue. The labor force continues to grow, and my current forecast calls for employment to rise 3% in 2022.

Idaho Home Sales

❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 5,183 homes sold, representing an increase of 4.2% compared to a year ago but 24.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Quarter over quarter, sales fell in every county covered by this report.

❱ Sales fell in all the northern counties contained in this report compared to a year ago, but this was offset by rising sales in more than half of the counties in Southern Idaho.

❱ Pending sales were 2.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021, but this is more than likely a function of inventory levels, which were down 28.4% from the last quarter. Supply is still very tight.

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EventsMarket News January 25, 2022

2022 Economic & Housing Forecast

Market NewsReal Estate Trends February 2, 2021

Q4 2020 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

 

by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Along with the rest of the country, the Idaho economy and its employment levels were significantly impacted by COVID-19. Though 83,100 jobs were lost, the recovery continues, with all but 3,400 of the jobs lost having returned. With this recovery in employment, the unemployment rate, which peaked at 11.8% in April, now stands at a respectable 4.8%. Although the direction is very positive, I am continuing to temper my enthusiasm because Idaho saw new COVID-19 cases rise in December. If this continues, the pace of the job recovery may slow.

IDAHO HOME SALES

❱ During the final quarter of 2020, 7,282 homes were sold. This represents a very significant year-over-year increase of 19.4%.

❱ In the southern markets, sales also rose in all counties. Blaine County saw a remarkable increase: the number of transactions there was up 88%. Double-digit growth was seen in all counties other than Payette.

❱ Year-over-year sales growth was positive in all the Northern Idaho counties contained in this report. Boundary County saw significant growth. Overall, the region saw double-digit growth.

❱ Pending sales slowed compared to the third quarter, but I attribute this to seasonality. Listing activity was 50% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, which certainly frustrated would-be buyers.

IDAHO HOME PRICES

❱The average home price in the region rose a very significant 29% year-over-year to $496,679.

❱ In Northern Idaho, prices rose significantly in Kootenai County, but all counties saw double-digit gains. Southern Idaho price growth was equally impressive, with Blaine County standing out with an average home sale price over $1.2 million.

❱ Prices rose in all Northern and Southern Idaho counties covered by this report.

❱ As mentioned above, inventory levels remain an issue. As much as I would like to say they will increase early in the spring, I am afraid that may not be the case.

 

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Market NewsReal Estate Trends July 30, 2020

Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Powerhouse Group agent at 208-920-5966.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It appears as if the significant COVID-19-induced contraction in employment Idaho experienced earlier this year is behind us (at least for now). Statewide employment declined modestly in March, but April was the real shock, with the loss of more than 78,000 jobs in the month, a decline of 10.2%. However, the economy appears to have turned around remarkably quickly, with a solid increase of 24,300 jobs in May. Idaho did see COVID-19 cases rise significantly in June, but the latest data appears to suggest that the trend has started to reverse. If this continues, I am hopeful more of the jobs lost will return.

 

HOME SALES

  • During the second quarter of 2020, 6,264 homes were sold, a drop of 10.6% when compared to the second quarter of 2019. However, I would note that sales rose 22.2% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • In the southern markets, sales rose in small Valley County, but dropped in the rest of the counties covered in this report compared to the same period a year ago.
  • Year-over-year, sales growth was negative in all of the Northern Idaho counties contained in this report. The most substantial drop was in Bonner County, though the decline there amounted to only 37 units.
  • Pending sales rose a significant 18% over the first quarter of the year, suggesting that closed sales will rise in the third quarter.

Continue reading

 

Real Estate Trends February 7, 2019

The Idaho Economic Report by Matthew Gardner

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact our office. 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Job growth in Idaho slowed in the fall of 2018 but the state added 13,200 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 1.8%.

In November, the state unemployment rate was 2.6%, down from 3% a year ago. The state remains at full employment, which explains why we are seeing a slowdown in employment growth. I fully anticipate that the state will return to above-average growth in 2019 and continue its trend of adding jobs at well above the national pace.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • 5,308 homes were sold during the fourth quarter of 2018, representing a drop of 3% compared to the final quarter of 2017.  Continue reading…