Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, answers the most pressing question on everyone’s minds: Will there be a recession in 2020? Here’s what he expects to see.
If you are interested in learning more about the Idaho’s economic and real estate market forecast for 2020 from Matthew Gardner live, please join us on January 30th at JUMP in Boise from 10:00 am-12:00 pm. To reserve your spot or if you have any questions, please contact Gretchen Bolton at email@example.com.
Save the Date
January 30, 2020 10 am- 12 pm
You are invited to join us as Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere, presents a 2020 Economic and Housing Forecast for Idaho on January 30, 2020, 10 am – 12 pm at JUMP in Downtown Boise.
Matthew is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. regularly speaks at events around the country, is frequently quoted in the media in stories and publishes the Gardner Report, which highlights market conditions in regions throughout the Western U.S. View the 3rd Quarter 2019 Idaho Report here.
Please contact us if you are interested in attending or learning more about the upcoming event. PowerhouseGroup@Windermere.com or 208-920-5966.
|The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%, marginally higher than the 2.8% rate a year ago. It cannot be disputed that the state remains at full employment. It’s also interesting to note that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose by 2.2%, suggesting that the economy remains very strong and new entrants to the labor force are finding jobs relatively easily.
|HOME SALES||ANNUAL CHANGE IN HOME SALES Q3-2018 TO Q3-2019|
|❱ During the third quarter, 7,342 homes sold, representing a modest drop of 3.4% compared to the third quarter of 2018.
❱ In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County experienced a 17.9% increase in sales over the third quarter of 2018. There was a modest increase in Bonner County and a very slight contraction in Kootenai County. In Southern Idaho, sales jumped in Boise and Canyon counties. Blaine County also saw a slight increase, but sales activity was lower in the rest
❱ Year-over-year sales growth was positive in two Northern Idaho counties and three Southern Idaho counties.
❱ Pending sales rose in the third quarter, suggesting that closed sales in the final quarter of this year are likely to be an improvement over current figures.
|❱ The average home price in the region rose 8% year-over-year to $367,963. Prices were 2.7% higher than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Prices rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
|❱ In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Bonner County also had solid price growth. In Southern Idaho, Gem County saw prices rise a very significant 29.7%, and there were notable increases in Valley, Canyon, and Boise counties.||❱ Inventory continues to be an issue. The number of homes for sale is down 3.4% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Although listings are up 7% over the second quarter, the market remains very tight, and this is pushing prices higher.|
|❱ It took an average of 94 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho, and 54 days in the southern part of the state.
❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped ten days compared to the third quarter of 2018. It was also ten days lower than in the second quarter of this year.
|❱ In Northern Idaho, days-on-market dropped across the board. In Southern Idaho, market time dropped in all counties except Ada and Canyon, though the rise in average market time was very modest.
❱ Homes sold the fastest in Gem, Canyon, and Ada counties.
|The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Job growth continues to slow from the frenetic pace of the past few years but remains quite impressive. As is commonly known, economic/job growth leads to demand for homeownership and this continues to bode well for the Idaho market; however, home sales continue to be held back by a lack of inventory and this is leading to higher prices.
As such, it remains a sellers’ market so I have moved the needle just a little more in their direction.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the WA Center for Real Estate Research; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact our office.
Following a trend that started last fall, job growth in Idaho continues to moderate. The addition of 18,400 new jobs year-over-year represents an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is to be expected at this point in the economic cycle, but it’s worth noting that the current rate of job growth remains well above the national average of 1.6%.
In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, marginally lower than the 2.9% rate of a year ago. The state remains at full employment, though it is interesting to note that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose 2%, suggesting that the economy remains very robust as there are still job openings to accommodate new workers.
- 6,936 homes were sold during the second quarter of 2019, representing a modest drop of 2.8% from the second quarter of 2018.
- In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County was the only county to experience sales growth, with sales up by 21.3% over the second quarter of 2018. There was a modest decline in sales in the other two counties. In Southern Idaho, Canyon and Payette counties had modest sales growth, but the rest of the region experienced lower sales activity.
- Year-over-year sales growth was positive in just one of the Northern Idaho counties. Sales rose in two Southern Idaho market areas relative to the same period a year ago.
- Pending sales rose in the quarter, suggesting that closed sales next quarter are likely to be an improvement over current figures.
- The average home price in the region rose 7.8% year-over-year to $358,406 and was 3.2% higher than the first quarter of this year. Continue reading…..
Windermere Powerhouse Group is proud to announce Bonnie Burry has accepted the position of Designated Broker. Bonnie brings a wealth of knowledge and a spirit of adventure and generosity to our brokerage. She shares our vision and passion of relationships before sales, strategic growth and impeccable service and ethical industry standards. Bonnie is a Certified Residential Specialist, earned her Associate Broker designation nearly three decades ago and is a long-time member of the Top Producers club. She has mentored countless agents, served in leadership roles and is excited to take on the challenge of Designated Broker at Windermere Powerhouse Group, a flourishing new brokerage in Boise. And Windermere Powerhouse Group is excited to have Bonnie leading the team.
Get to Know Bonnie
Bonnie’s love for homes and the Idaho hills began as a small child growing up on a fruit ranch in Emmett, Idaho. She followed her father around while he built the home she grew up in. There she developed building skills, a love for design, and the integrity instilled by an Idaho rancher.
A career in the industry was by default. She was on her way to obtaining a masters degree in education when she realized her true passion is real estate. And the rest is history. That side track has turned into a 35 year love affair with real estate. Loving the process of helping her clients get the best service possible is her heart’s joy.
She proudly served on the Historic Preservation Commission, helping to the maintain Historic integrity of Boise’s North end. Her love for construction was obvious in her many restoration projects. As a licensed contractor, she saved over 25 homes from decline and gave them new life. This became her signature style!
See our Office
We invite you to come by our office and take a tour, meet (or reconnect with) Bonnie, and learn more about Windermere Powerhouse Group. Please join us in welcoming our new Designate Broker Bonnie Burry at firstname.lastname@example.org or 208-371-7144.
Windermere Powerhouse Group knows how important it is to understand our real estate market and how curious everyone is to know what is going on in our community. So we’re sharing our monthly market snapshot and detailed reports of the Treasure Valley real estate market. Reports are available through the links below and our agents are always available to answer questions and provide information on specific areas you are interested in.
Today is Windermere Community Service Day. Staff and agents in Windermere offices across the country are spending the day volunteering in their communities and we’ve been at Whitney Elementary…..but more on that later! We still wanted to post our monthly real estate statistics for Ada and Canyon County. In this real estate market with limited inventory, there are challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers. Windermere Powerhouse Group agents are experts here to assist you with strategies to reach your real estate goals. Contact us if you’re interested in learning more.
For detailed information on Ada and Canyon County Existing and New Construction check out the reports below.
The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
Job growth in Idaho continues to moderate. The state added 19,400 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.7%. That said, the growth rate remains well above the national average of 1.7%. In March, Idaho’s unemployment rate was 2.9%, matching the level seen a year ago. The state remains at full employment, and it’s worth noting that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose by 2%. This suggests the economy remains very strong as there are still job openings to accommodate new workers. Idaho continues to outperform the nation in terms of economic vitality and will continue to do so for the balance of the year.
- 4,440 homes were sold during the first quarter of 2019, representing a drop of 4.3% compared to the first quarter of 2018.
- In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County was alone in experiencing sales growth, with an increase of 12% over the first quarter of 2018. There was a substantial drop of more than 15% in Bonner County, but this is a small area, making it prone to significant swings. In Southern Idaho, we saw modest sales growth in Payette County, modest declines in Canyon and Ada counties, and significantly lower sales in the small area of Boise County.
- Year-over-year sales growth was positive in just one Northern Idaho market, and only one of the Southern Idaho markets saw sales rise relative to the same period a year ago.
- When compared to the first quarter of 2018, the number of homes for sale was lower across the board in Northern Idaho and in most Southern Idaho market areas. It’s likely that this contributed to the decline in sales.
The 2019 Ada County Parade of Homes is wrapping up this weekend. Since 1956 this annual event puts new home construction trends to the forefront. From decor to architecture style, visitors on the Parade take notice and compare to previous trends. This time of year we get the most questions about new home construction in the Treasure Valley. With Idaho’s population increase of 2.1 % in 2018, one of the second fastest growing states, and Boise is showing up on a Top Ten list at least once a month, we are getting more questions than ever. This growth means an abundance of new residential construction and we wanted to share more information with you.
Below are maps and an accompanying report for new construction home sales in Ada County broken down by subdivision and price. Click on the thumbnail to see a full size map and report. Be sure to ask our agents for supplementary detail if desire more than a snapshot. They’re equipped to share detailed information within each submarket, by price point or size of home, so that you can make the best buying or selling decision for you.
NE Boise & SE Boise N & NW Boise/Garden City W & SW Boise/Boise Bench
Eagle & Star SE & SW Meridian NE & NW Meridian
Full market statistics reports on Ada and Canyon County
“How’s the market?” is the one question that Windermere Agents get asked most. It is the same question we ask when we meet an agent from another state. It’s a simple question with a very complex answer. Windermere Powerhouse Group knows how important it is to understand our real estate market and how curious everyone is to know what is going on in our community. So we created a market snapshot and a detailed report for every area of the Treasure Valley that will be posted monthly here on our Blog. This month we are featuring Ada County Existing Home Sales (i.e., greater than 1 year old). Links for other areas and detailed reports are below.
1. Spring and summer are historically the seasons when market activity increases. More homes are available for sale, and under the current market dynamics, demand immediately follows. Total Year-to-Date (YTD) 2019 transactions are down from 2018, and the shortage of supply is a major contributor. As you’ll see below, overall prices continue to increase yet days-on-market remain at historically low levels. If you are interested in buying or selling your house now is the perfect time to take action.
2. Existing home prices have risen every year since 2011 and have taken a substantial increase in the last several years. Average prices for Ada County existing homes have continued to climb in 2019, currently up 3.6%. Windermere Real Estate’s in-house economist, Matthew Gardner, forecasts 2019 Home Price growth to be 4.5% nationally, 8.9% in Ada County and 8.1% in Canyon County. So it’s actually a safe time to buy or sell a home too. Gardner forecasts the number of Ada County households to increase by 11.1% over five years, while Canyon County by 13.3% growth.
3. Last March, nearly half the existing Ada County homes that sold closed “At” or “Above” the original asking price. However, that trend varies greatly throughout the Treasure Valley. The graphs above show a snapshot of the Ada County averages compared to the North End and Boise Bench. There are numerous factors affecting a home’s price, and it’s evident that overpriced houses cost their sellers 2-3 mortgage payments last month. Specific neighborhoods have their own unique characteristics, and the REALTORS® at Windermere Powerhouse Group each possess the expertise and data to lead your next real estate transaction.
If you’d like more detailed information, have interest in learning more or would like a thorough valuation of your current home, we’d love to hear from you.
Specialized Areas and Construction Types