Market NewsReal Estate Trends May 3, 2022

Q1 2022 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

Regional Economic Overview

Employment in Idaho rose 3.2% over the past 12 months and the latest data shows the number of jobs is 38,300 higher than the pre-pandemic peak. This is particularly notable as there are only nine other states that have exceeded their pre-Covid employment levels. The state unemployment rate was only 2.7%, down from 3.1% at the end of 2021, and lower than the March 2021 rate of 3.9%. There was a very modest decline in total employment between February and March of this year, but I do not see this as being an issue. The labor force continues to grow, and my current forecast calls for employment to rise 3% in 2022.

Idaho Home Sales

❱ In the first quarter of 2022, 5,183 homes sold, representing an increase of 4.2% compared to a year ago but 24.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021.

❱ Quarter over quarter, sales fell in every county covered by this report.

❱ Sales fell in all the northern counties contained in this report compared to a year ago, but this was offset by rising sales in more than half of the counties in Southern Idaho.

❱ Pending sales were 2.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2021, but this is more than likely a function of inventory levels, which were down 28.4% from the last quarter. Supply is still very tight.

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EventsMarket News January 25, 2022

2022 Economic & Housing Forecast

Market NewsReal Estate Trends November 3, 2021

Q3 2021 Idaho Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

On top of having recovered all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by the end of 2020—a remarkable feat in itself—the Idaho economy continues to strengthen. Current employment levels are up by 15,400 jobs from the pre-pandemic peak. With the labor market continuing to expand, the unemployment rate was 2.9% in August (the most recent data available). Equally impressive was that the rate dropped even as the labor force grew—no easy task. New COVID-19 cases remain higher than I would like, but this does not appear to have impacted the state’s economy to any significant degree given the robust employment picture. As we move, hopefully, toward a time when the impacts of the pandemic wane further, I see nothing but an upward trajectory for the state’s economy.

IDAHO HOME SALES

❱ In the third quarter, 7,354 existing homes sold, representing a drop of 19.9% from a year ago. However, given that the country was experiencing a massive housing rebound following the outbreak of COVID-19, any comparison with data from 12 months ago is not very informative. More useful is that sales rose 22.1% compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ As mentioned, comparing current data to a year ago does not provide an accurate picture, but comparing it with the second quarter data shows sales higher across the board. Sales were up by double digits in every county covered by this report.

❱ Year-over-year sales improved in Shoshone County in Northern Idaho. Sales also rose in Gem County in the southern part of the state.

❱ Pending sales rose 16.5% from the second quarter of 2021, suggesting that closed sales in the final quarter of the year are also likely to show improvement from current levels. This is also supported by the fact that listing inventory has risen almost 36%. I predict more listings will lead to more sales.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales in various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

IDAHO HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ The average home price in the region rose 30.9% year over year to $603,066. Prices were also up 8% compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Compared to the previous quarter, home prices were up 8.9% in both the northern and southern counties in this report. Sizable gains were seen in Shoshone County (+33.7%) and Bonner County (+22.7%) in the north, and Valley County (+22.6%) and Blaine County (+17.2%) in the south.

❱ Prices rose by double-digits across the board. Sale prices were up 37% in the North Idaho counties covered by this report, and up 27.7% in the southern counties.

❱ With far more buyers than sellers, home prices continue their upward march. As prices are rising at a far faster pace than wages, this cannot continue indefinitely. I expect to see the pace of appreciation start to slow, but probably not until next year.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ It took an average of 72 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho, and 31 days in the southern part of the state.

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped 23 days compared to the third quarter of 2020 but rose 2 days compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ In Northern Idaho, days on market dropped in all counties versus a year ago but rose in all counties compared to the second quarter of this year. Market time in Southern Idaho was also lower than a year ago, but it was up from the prior quarter in Valley, Gem, and Blaine counties.

❱ Homes sold the fastest in Ada and Canyon counties in the southern part of the state. Sales were again fastest in Shoshone County in the northern part of the state.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in North and South Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Idaho during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Idaho’s economy appears to be powering forward and job recovery is well ahead of almost every other state. The result is clearly an increasing number of buyers who feel comfortable buying a new home, even given the dramatic price growth of late.

That said, the only factors favoring buyers right now are that there are significantly more homes to choose from and mortgage rates remain very low by historic standards. All other factors support sellers more than buyers. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in their favor, even as affordability concerns continue to rise.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

EventsMarket NewsReal Estate Trends January 14, 2020

Matthew Gardner – Will There Be A Recession in 2020?

Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, answers the most pressing question on everyone’s minds: Will there be a recession in 2020? Here’s what he expects to see.

 

 

If you are interested in learning more about the Idaho’s economic and real estate market forecast for 2020 from Matthew Gardner live, please join us on January 30th at JUMP in Boise from 10:00 am-12:00 pm. To reserve your spot or if you have any questions, please contact Gretchen Bolton at gbolton@windermere.com.

Market NewsReal Estate Trends November 4, 2019

Idaho 2019 3rd Quarter Real Estate Economic Report

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Following a trend that started last fall, job growth in Idaho continues to moderate. The addition of 15,700 new jobs year-over-year represents an annual growth rate of 2.1%. This is to be expected at this point in the economic cycle, though it’s worth adding that the current rate of job growth remains well above the national average of 1.4%.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%, marginally higher than the 2.8% rate a year ago. It cannot be disputed that the state remains at full employment. It’s also interesting to note that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose by 2.2%, suggesting that the economy remains very strong and new entrants to the labor force are finding jobs relatively easily.


HOME SALES ANNUAL CHANGE IN HOME SALES                                    Q3-2018 TO Q3-2019
❱ During the third quarter, 7,342 homes sold, representing a modest drop of 3.4% compared to the third quarter of 2018.

❱ In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County experienced a 17.9% increase in sales over the third quarter of 2018. There was a modest increase in Bonner County and a very slight contraction in Kootenai County. In Southern Idaho, sales jumped in Boise and Canyon counties. Blaine County also saw a slight increase, but sales activity was lower in the rest
of the region.

❱ Year-over-year sales growth was positive in two Northern Idaho counties and three Southern Idaho counties.

❱ Pending sales rose in the third quarter, suggesting that closed sales in the final quarter of this year are likely to be an improvement over current figures.


HOME PRICES

❱ The average home price in the region rose 8% year-over-year to $367,963. Prices were 2.7% higher than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Prices rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
❱ In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Bonner County also had solid price growth. In Southern Idaho, Gem County saw prices rise a very significant 29.7%, and there were notable increases in Valley, Canyon, and Boise counties. ❱ Inventory continues to be an issue. The number of homes for sale is down 3.4% compared to the third quarter of 2018. Although listings are up 7% over the second quarter, the market remains very tight, and this is pushing prices higher.


❱ It took an average of 94 days to sell a home in Northern Idaho, and 54 days in the southern part of the state.

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped ten days compared to the third quarter of 2018. It was also ten days lower than in the second quarter of this year.

❱ In Northern Idaho, days-on-market dropped across the board. In Southern Idaho, market time dropped in all counties except Ada and Canyon, though the rise in average market time was very modest.

❱ Homes sold the fastest in Gem, Canyon, and Ada counties.

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Job growth continues to slow from the frenetic pace of the past few years but remains quite impressive. As is commonly known, economic/job growth leads to demand for homeownership and this continues to bode well for the Idaho market; however, home sales continue to be held back by a lack of inventory and this is leading to higher prices.

As such, it remains a sellers’ market so I have moved the needle just a little more in their direction.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. Matthew also sits on the Washington State

Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the WA Center for Real Estate Research; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.


 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends August 14, 2019

Idaho Economic Market Report

The following analysis of select counties of the Idaho real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact our office.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following a trend that started last fall, job growth in Idaho continues to moderate. The addition of 18,400 new jobs year-over-year represents an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is to be expected at this point in the economic cycle, but it’s worth noting that the current rate of job growth remains well above the national average of 1.6%.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, marginally lower than the 2.9% rate of a year ago. The state remains at full employment, though it is interesting to note that the employment rate remained below 3% even as the labor force rose 2%, suggesting that the economy remains very robust as there are still job openings to accommodate new workers.

 

HOME SALES

  • 6,936 homes were sold during the second quarter of 2019, representing a modest drop of 2.8% from the second quarter of 2018.
  • In Northern Idaho, Shoshone County was the only county to experience sales growth, with sales up by 21.3% over the second quarter of 2018. There was a modest decline in sales in the other two counties. In Southern Idaho, Canyon and Payette counties had modest sales growth, but the rest of the region experienced lower sales activity.
  • Year-over-year sales growth was positive in just one of the Northern Idaho counties. Sales rose in two Southern Idaho market areas relative to the same period a year ago.
  • Pending sales rose in the quarter, suggesting that closed sales next quarter are likely to be an improvement over current figures.

 

HOME PRICES

  • The average home price in the region rose 7.8% year-over-year to $358,406 and was 3.2% higher than the first quarter of this year.   Continue reading…..

 

    

Market NewsReal Estate Trends July 5, 2019

June 2019 Treasure Valley Market Statistics

Windermere Powerhouse Group knows how important it is to understand our real estate market and how curious everyone is to know what is going on in our community. So we’re sharing our monthly market snapshot and detailed reports of the Treasure Valley real estate market. Reports are available through the links below and our agents are always available to answer questions and provide information on specific areas you are interested in.

 

Ada Existing Homes June 2019

Ada New Construction 2019

Canyon Existing Homes June 2019

Canyon New Construction June 2019

 

Market NewsReal Estate Trends June 7, 2019

May 2019 Treasure Valley Market Statistics

Today is Windermere Community Service Day. Staff and agents in Windermere offices across the country are spending the day volunteering in their communities and we’ve been at Whitney Elementary…..but more on that later! We still wanted to  post our monthly real estate statistics for Ada and Canyon County. In this real estate market with limited inventory, there are challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers. Windermere Powerhouse Group agents are experts here to assist you with strategies to reach your real estate goals. Contact us if you’re interested in learning more.

 

 

 

For detailed information on Ada and Canyon County Existing and New Construction check out the reports below. 

Ada County Existing Homes May

Ada County New Construction May

Canyon County Existing Homes May

Canyon County New Construction May